Despite economic uncertainty and weak consumer sentiment, April’s new-vehicle sales are more likely to show spring flowers, not seasonal showers. Cox Automotive is expecting the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of new-vehicle sales in April to finish near 16.1 million, down slightly from March’s 16.3 million level. Sales volume is expected to fall 1.9% from last month.

The sales pace this month is anticipated to be notably lower than last April’s tariff‑lifted 17.1 million rate but has held up better than anticipated despite the ongoing war in the Middle East, elevated fuel prices, and broader economic volatility. Sales volume in April is forecasted to drop 5.4% from last year. There are 26 selling days this April, the same as last year but one more than last month.

April is expected to mark the third straight month of annual sales declines, as vehicle demand continues to be shaped by competing headwinds and tailwinds. While fuel prices have risen significantly and signs of inflation have returned, strong tax refunds have added needed stimulus to the economy and the U.S. stock market has also returned to record levels.

Cox Automotive Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough: “April sales appear to be holding up against a lot of uncertainty in the economy. Surging gas prices and historically low consumer confidence haven’t crashed the vehicle market. Sales in April, as in March, were expected to decline from last year’s temporarily high levels, but they haven’t fallen as much as initially expected, thanks in part to strong tax refunds and healthy equity markets.”

April 2026 New-Vehicles Sales Forecast