Government targets are limiting choice and killing economic growth…
The UK launched the sliding scale of annual EV sales targets under its EV mandate in 2024. This sliding scale increases the target annually, with the goal of reaching 100% by 2035.
Canada has the same goal, 100% by 2035, but our sliding scale of annual targets starts in 2026.
The table below gives statistics on each market that will be relevant in this article.
| UK | Canada | |
| Population (2024 est.) | 69 million | 41 million |
| Landmass (excl. water) | 242,000 sq kms | 9,000,000 sq kms |
| New cars sold 2024 (approx.) | 1,950,000 | 1,860,000 |
| Public EV Chargers | 64,632 (July 2024) | 28,188 (May 2024) |
These statistics show the UK should be an EV market with advantages over Canada. Higher population density, a smaller landmass, so shorter travel distances, and more than double the number of public EV chargers. However, EV sales are facing challenges in the UK, and this may be a lesson for Canada.
In 2024 the UK had an EV target of 22% of new car sales, with ICE the remaining 78%. Unfortunately, EVs only captured 18% of 2024 sales. The market split was EV 18% and ICE 82%.
Market demand
The car manufacturers sold some 78,000 more ICE vehicles than the mandate limit. They were sold because they are what the public wanted to buy. The public did not want 78,000 more EVs.
This will have a major negative financial impact on the car manufacturers as the UK government will levy fines of up to £15,000 per extra ICE vehicle sold, almost $27,000 (Canadian) per car. It will cost the car manufacturers collectively over 20 billion Canadian dollars in fines.
This is 20 billion dollars in capital being sucked from the car manufacturers by one market. It will dramatically reduce the capital pool available for investments in product development, plants and machinery. It will weaken the financial position of car manufacturers and force them to recover this huge cost by increasing the selling price of cars.
Removing Tesla from the equation, EVs are not profitable for western car manufacturers serving the broad market. Volkswagen, GM, Ford, Stellantis etc. are losing money on EVs and juicing the prices on ICE vehicles to offset the loss. They are losing money on EVs despite all the government grants and subsidies.
Plant and assembly line closures
This will get worse. Some car manufacturers are closing plants or closing production lines that manufacture ICE vehicles, as they plan to make more EVs and limit the availability of ICE vehicles to force the market to accept EVs. As manufacturing EVs requires less labour than ICE vehicles, and EVs use less parts and components than ICE vehicles, this will wipe out many jobs across the automotive vertical, including those at the car manufacturers, at parts manufacturers, at transportation companies, and more.
In the UK, Stellantis has announced it is closing the iconic Vauxhall plant at Luton in Bedfordshire, that manufactures ICE powered vehicles, putting 1,100 jobs at risk. Rules imposed to speed up the transition to EVs in the UK partly drove the decision, the firm said.
Stellantis rival, Nissan, said the EV rules are undermining the viability of manufacturing cars in the UK, putting thousands of jobs and billions in investment at risk.
Growing concern
There are growing concerns among car manufacturers over the UK EV sales targets, with many, including Stellantis, calling for the UK government to do more to boost consumer demand. How will the government boost consumer demand? What will make the consumers who don’t want EVs think about buying an EV? Well, it’s the price, silly! The government will have to offer larger rebates. How will they fund these rebates? Well, with taxes taken from the taxpayer’s pocket.
You don’t need a degree in finance to see the problem here. We are paying higher taxes, governments are increasing deficits, to fund the production and sales of EVs that are weakening car manufacturers and suppliers and destroying jobs.
Welcome to the fantasy world of EV mandates. Self-funded destruction…and it’s coming to Canada!
References:
UK Population –
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/uk-population/
Canada Population –
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/241217/dq241217c-eng.htm
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/canada-population/
Landmass UK and Canada –
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_area
(Use Land only)
UK EV Mandate with Annual Target Sliding Scale –
https://www.evaengland.org.uk/our-work/zev-mandate/
Canada EV Mandate with Annual Target Sliding Scale –
UK new car sales 2024 –
UK passenger car sales increase 2.6% in 2024Year-to-date sales rose 2.6% with 1,952,778 cars registered in 2024. 2024 sales for VW rose 2.6% to 166,304 units (8.5% market share), BMW sales increased 12.1% to 125,265 units (6.4% share), and Audi sales decreased 10.9% to 122,431 units (6.3% share).
Canada new car sales 2024 –
On January 6, DesRosiers Automotive Consultants announced that overall sales for 2024 in Canada reached an estimated 1.86 million, an increase of 8.2% from the 1.72 million units sold in 2023.
UK public EV chargers –
At 1 July 2024, there were 64,632 public electric vehicle charging devices available in the UK.
https://maps.dft.gov.uk/ev-charging-map/index.html
Canada public EV chargers –
May 27, 2024 — Transport Canada lists 28,188 charging points in total in Canada today
Stellantis closing Luton UK Vauxhall van factory –
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy8n3n62wq4o
UK Market Example Auto Trader YouTube–
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