{"id":88666,"date":"2020-10-29T10:39:11","date_gmt":"2020-10-29T14:39:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/autosphere.ca\/?p=88666"},"modified":"2020-12-22T09:14:09","modified_gmt":"2020-12-22T14:14:09","slug":"ventes-dautos-mondiales-retour-a-la-normale","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/autosphere.ca\/fr\/concessionnaires\/2020\/10\/29\/ventes-dautos-mondiales-retour-a-la-normale\/","title":{"rendered":"Ventes d\u2019autos mondiales : retour \u00e0 la normale"},"content":{"rendered":"

Les ventes d\u2019automobiles canadiennes d\u2019INTRO ont enregistr\u00e9 un nouveau rebond en juillet, marquant un troisi\u00e8me mois cons\u00e9cutif de reprise.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Les ventes se sont am\u00e9lior\u00e9es, mais la pand\u00e9mie continue \u00e0 se faire sentir<\/strong><\/h5>\n

Apr\u00e8s de solides rebonds \u00e0 la fin du printemps et au d\u00e9but de l\u2019\u00e9t\u00e9, les ventes mondiales de v\u00e9hicules se sont normalis\u00e9es en septembre comme pr\u00e9vu, reprenant de 5\u00a0% m\/m apr\u00e8s un l\u00e9ger ralentissement en ao\u00fbt.<\/p>\n

Les ventes devaient ralentir \u00e0 l\u2019approche du quatri\u00e8me trimestre et la demande refoul\u00e9e a \u00e9t\u00e9 satisfaite. Il y a \u00e9galement eu quelques difficult\u00e9s d\u2019approvisionnement et une baisse de la confiance des consommateurs qui pourraient pousser certains achats \u00e0 la nouvelle ann\u00e9e. Dans l\u2019ensemble, les ventes mondiales ont baiss\u00e9 de 21\u00a0% par rapport au quatri\u00e8me trimestre, et nous nous attendons \u00e0 des vents contraires avec la deuxi\u00e8me vague de COVID-19 dans de nombreuses r\u00e9gions du monde.<\/p>\n

Un rebondissement des pr\u00e9visions<\/strong><\/h5>\n

Pour 2021, nous pr\u00e9voyons un rebond d\u2019environ 10\u00a0%, car les deuxi\u00e8mes vagues de la pand\u00e9mie sont derri\u00e8re nous, ce qui ram\u00e8nera les ventes mondiales \u00e0 9\u00a0% des niveaux d\u2019avant la pand\u00e9mie.<\/p>\n

La l\u00e9g\u00e8re reprise de septembre a \u00e9t\u00e9 men\u00e9e par la Chine, qui a connu une augmentation de 8\u00a0% en glissement annuel, bien que les ventes soient rest\u00e9es stables par rapport au mois d\u2019ao\u00fbt. L\u2019Europe occidentale a connu une am\u00e9lioration constante, tandis que les ventes en Am\u00e9rique latine ont commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 se redresser.<\/p>\n

Pour la premi\u00e8re fois, le Canada et les \u00c9tats-Unis ont connu une situation positive en septembre, avec une acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration d\u2019environ 7\u00a0% en glissement annuel sur les deux march\u00e9s.<\/p>\n

Des r\u00e9sultats diff\u00e9rents selon les provinces<\/strong><\/h5>\n

Les facteurs li\u00e9s \u00e0 la pand\u00e9mie ont \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019origine de diff\u00e9rences entre les provinces jusqu\u2019\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent cette ann\u00e9e. Nos donn\u00e9es pr\u00e9liminaires ont montr\u00e9 que si l\u2019emploi a augment\u00e9 en Ontario en septembre, les ventes de voitures ont chut\u00e9 lorsque les cas de COVID-19 ont commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 s\u2019acc\u00e9l\u00e9rer dans la province. Dans l\u2019ensemble du Canada, l\u2019Ontario a enregistr\u00e9 les plus fortes baisses \u00e0 la fin du troisi\u00e8me trimestre, ce qui est probablement le reflet de fermetures plus strictes et plus longues dans ses plus grandes villes, ainsi que d\u2019une stagnation des flux d\u2019immigration, puisque la province est le plus grand destinataire de nouveaux Canadiens. La baisse des ventes dans les provinces productrices de p\u00e9trole a \u00e9t\u00e9 plus mod\u00e9r\u00e9e, malgr\u00e9 l\u2019impact \u00e9conomique plus grave des chocs p\u00e9troliers. Au fur et \u00e0 mesure de la reprise, les facteurs \u00e9conomiques traditionnels devraient dominer les perspectives des ventes d\u2019automobiles.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/strong><\/h5>\n

Nous pourrions voir une augmentation des ventes de v\u00e9hicules d\u2019occasion l\u2019ann\u00e9e prochaine, qui ont tendance \u00e0 fonctionner de mani\u00e8re anticyclique par rapport aux v\u00e9hicules neufs. Les prix des v\u00e9hicules d\u2019occasion au Canada et sur d\u2019autres march\u00e9s ont rebondi de mani\u00e8re substantielle apr\u00e8s une premi\u00e8re baisse au printemps. Cela est probablement d\u00fb \u00e0 des contraintes d\u2019approvisionnement, car de nombreux consommateurs ont prolong\u00e9 leur bail ou report\u00e9 leur pr\u00eat, ainsi qu\u2019\u00e0 la faiblesse du dollar canadien qui a vu de nombreux v\u00e9hicules d\u2019occasion partir aux \u00c9tats-Unis.<\/p>\n

Un march\u00e9 potentiellement plus fort <\/strong><\/h5>\n

Comme le Canada a connu des baisses plus importantes que les \u00c9tats-Unis en 2020, nous pr\u00e9voyons un rebondissement potentiellement plus fort ici en 2021, \u00e0 un taux pr\u00e9vu de 15\u00a0% contre 12\u00a0% pour les \u00c9tats-Unis. Une reprise \u00e9conomique relativement similaire ram\u00e8nerait les ventes d\u2019automobiles \u00e0 7\u00a0% de leur niveau d\u2019avant la pand\u00e9mie en 2021 dans les deux pays.<\/p>\n

Les ventes au Mexique devraient conna\u00eetre des baisses beaucoup plus importantes (29\u00a0%) en 2020, et une reprise plus longue sera le reflet de la reprise \u00e9conomique. Nous pr\u00e9voyons un rebond de 13\u00a0% en 2021, mais cela ne ram\u00e8nera les ventes qu\u2019\u00e0 80\u00a0% des niveaux pr\u00e9pand\u00e9miques.<\/p>\n

Nous ajoutons que les niveaux de confiance autour de nos pr\u00e9visions sont inhabituellement \u00e9lev\u00e9s, compte tenu de cette p\u00e9riode sans pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent. Les politiques positives, telles que les d\u00e9penses de relance, ou les effets n\u00e9gatifs de la pand\u00e9mie qui se poursuivront au cours de la nouvelle ann\u00e9e, seront autant de facteurs qui influeront sur notre progression.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Les ventes d\u2019automobiles canadiennes d\u2019INTRO ont enregistr\u00e9 un nouveau rebond en juillet, marquant un troisi\u00e8me mois cons\u00e9cutif de reprise. Les ventes se sont am\u00e9lior\u00e9es, mais la pand\u00e9mie continue \u00e0 se faire sentir Apr\u00e8s de solides rebonds \u00e0 la fin du printemps et au d\u00e9but de l\u2019\u00e9t\u00e9, les ventes mondiales de v\u00e9hicules se sont normalis\u00e9es en…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":174,"featured_media":89109,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[808,646],"tags":[2532],"class_list":["post-88666","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-chroniques-experts-concessionnaires","category-concessionnaires","tag-rapport"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nVentes d\u2019autos mondiales : retour \u00e0 la normale - Autosphere<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/autosphere.ca\/fr\/concessionnaires\/2020\/10\/29\/ventes-dautos-mondiales-retour-a-la-normale\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Ventes d\u2019autos mondiales : retour \u00e0 la normale\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Les ventes d\u2019automobiles canadiennes d\u2019INTRO ont enregistr\u00e9 un nouveau rebond en juillet, marquant un troisi\u00e8me mois cons\u00e9cutif de reprise. 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