{"id":377235,"date":"2022-12-21T19:45:11","date_gmt":"2022-12-22T00:45:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/autosphere.ca\/?p=377235"},"modified":"2023-01-26T16:39:06","modified_gmt":"2023-01-26T21:39:06","slug":"le-debut-de-la-fin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/autosphere.ca\/fr\/concessionnaires\/2022\/12\/21\/le-debut-de-la-fin\/","title":{"rendered":"Le d\u00e9but de la fin"},"content":{"rendered":"

Attendez-vous \u00e0 une am\u00e9lioration \u00e9conomique d’ici le milieu de l’ann\u00e9e 2023.<\/strong><\/p>\n

L’ann\u00e9e 2022 n’a pas \u00e9t\u00e9 facile, mais \u00e0 l’aube d’une nouvelle ann\u00e9e, nous pensons que nous voyons peut-\u00eatre le d\u00e9but de la fin. La route est encore sem\u00e9e d’emb\u00fbches, mais nous pensons que les choses vont s’am\u00e9liorer d’ici le milieu de l’ann\u00e9e 2023.<\/p>\n

Nous examinons les \u00ab 3 P \u00bb \u2013 pause, pivot et patience \u2013 car la Banque du Canada fixe les taux d’int\u00e9r\u00eat en fonction de ce qui se passe dans l’\u00e9conomie.<\/p>\n

Les taux d’int\u00e9r\u00eat ont peut-\u00eatre atteint un sommet<\/strong><\/h2>\n

La Banque a port\u00e9 les taux d’int\u00e9r\u00eat \u00e0 4,505 % en janvier 2023 et a signal\u00e9 une pause (bien qu’elle n’ait pas compl\u00e8tement ferm\u00e9 la porte \u00e0 d’autres hausses). \u00c0 la Banque Scotia, nous pensons que la Banque a termin\u00e9. La hausse des taux a pour but d’att\u00e9nuer le co\u00fbt des achats sensibles aux taux d’int\u00e9r\u00eat, comme les maisons ou les automobiles, pour lesquels les gens doivent g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement emprunter pour acheter. Nous constatons que les prix des maisons au Canada ont subi des corrections importantes, ce qui signifie que les outils du gouvernement fonctionnent comme pr\u00e9vu.<\/p>\n

De plus, nous savons qu’il y a toujours un d\u00e9lai de r\u00e9action pour les autres secteurs. Nous nous attendons toujours \u00e0 ce qu’il y ait plus d’amortissement, et la Banque le sait. C’est pourquoi nous pensons qu’elle fait une pause pour laisser les 4,50 % s’impr\u00e9gner.<\/p>\n

L’activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique reprend<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Cela signifie que nous nous attendons \u00e0 ce que la Banque fasse une pause \u00e0 ce taux pendant la premi\u00e8re moiti\u00e9 de 2023, puis qu’elle pivote vers la fin de 2023 lorsqu’elle constatera l’effet de d\u00e9calage et les dommages collat\u00e9raux sur les d\u00e9penses. \u00c0 partir de ce pivot, les taux baisseront et relanceront l’activit\u00e9 dans l’\u00e9conomie.<\/p>\n

La patience, c’est que l’inflation baissera aussi, mais ce sera un processus pluriannuel. Elle sera en moyenne de 4 % en 2023, et ce n’est qu’en 2024 que nous verrons les 2 % vis\u00e9s par la Banque du Canada. Le pivot sera le d\u00e9but du voyage, mais ce ne sera pas exactement comme appuyer sur un interrupteur.<\/p>\n

Nous \u00e9tions \u00e0 peine au-dessus de 1,5 million de v\u00e9hicules pour 2022, et nous avons crayonn\u00e9 une pr\u00e9vision de 1,65 million de v\u00e9hicules pour 2023. Nous sommes toujours confront\u00e9s au probl\u00e8me de l’offre, tant ici qu’aux \u00c9tats-Unis, o\u00f9 les stocks limit\u00e9s ont frein\u00e9 les ventes.<\/p>\n

Les consommateurs ach\u00e8teront ce qu’ils veulent, pas seulement ce qu’ils peuvent obtenir. Avec les attentes d’une baisse des prix, d’un financement moins cher et de la dissipation des nuages de la r\u00e9cession, davantage d’acheteurs potentiels devraient revenir sur le march\u00e9 \u00e0 cet horizon.<\/p>\n

Positif pour les concessionnaires<\/strong><\/h2>\n

D’une certaine mani\u00e8re, cette situation pourrait finalement \u00eatre positive pour les concessionnaires. Nous pensons que nous nous trouvons face \u00e0 ce que l’on appelle une r\u00e9cession \u00ab technique \u00bb au d\u00e9but de l’ann\u00e9e 2023, c’est-\u00e0-dire deux trimestres de croissance l\u00e9g\u00e8rement n\u00e9gative, mais avec encore des personnes employ\u00e9es. Il ne s’agit pas de la situation prolong\u00e9e, g\u00e9n\u00e9ralis\u00e9e, profonde et sombre que l’on observe dans une v\u00e9ritable r\u00e9cession.<\/p>\n

C’est une distinction importante pour les concessionnaires, car nous aurons trois ann\u00e9es compl\u00e8tes pendant lesquelles les consommateurs n’auront pas pu acheter de v\u00e9hicules. Les concessionnaires r\u00e9alisent la majeure partie de leur chiffre d’affaires sur les services et les accessoires, car les consommateurs essaient de maintenir en \u00e9tat leurs voitures vieillissantes. Mais ils n’ach\u00e8tent pas de v\u00e9hicules lorsque l’incertitude \u00e9conomique et les taux d’int\u00e9r\u00eat sont \u00e9lev\u00e9s, et lorsque la situation s’am\u00e9liore, ils ach\u00e8tent les v\u00e9hicules qu’ils veulent, pas seulement ce qui est le moins cher et disponible. Nous voyons la lumi\u00e8re au bout du tunnel et, \u00e0 mesure qu’elle se rapproche, elle entra\u00eene les achats d’automobiles.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Attendez-vous \u00e0 une am\u00e9lioration \u00e9conomique d’ici le milieu de l’ann\u00e9e 2023. L’ann\u00e9e 2022 n’a pas \u00e9t\u00e9 facile, mais \u00e0 l’aube d’une nouvelle ann\u00e9e, nous pensons que nous voyons peut-\u00eatre le d\u00e9but de la fin. La route est encore sem\u00e9e d’emb\u00fbches, mais nous pensons que les choses vont s’am\u00e9liorer d’ici le milieu de l’ann\u00e9e 2023. Nous…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":174,"featured_media":365737,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[808,646],"tags":[3832],"class_list":["post-377235","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-chroniques-experts-concessionnaires","category-concessionnaires","tag-gestion"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLe d\u00e9but de la fin - Autosphere<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/autosphere.ca\/fr\/concessionnaires\/2022\/12\/21\/le-debut-de-la-fin\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Le d\u00e9but de la fin\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Attendez-vous \u00e0 une am\u00e9lioration \u00e9conomique d’ici le milieu de l’ann\u00e9e 2023. 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